Copyright (c) 2009 Gecko Software, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Lan H. Turner President, CEO Gecko Software Editor In Chief PitNews Magazine As an 18 year trading veteran, I’ve seen a lot of traders come and go. The successful traders are the one’s who take the time to learn the skills necessary to become successful at this business, and they are the traders who are still here working with us today. Never stop learning, stay in touch with the markets, as well as other traders; you must keep your head in the game to succeed. Lan H. Turner RESOURCES: Fibonacci Software  -  Elliott Wave Software  -  Futures News  -  Best Trading System  -  Forex Trading Software Futures Trading Software - Learn To Trade Commodities  -  How To Trade Futures Forex The Best Stocks, Futures & Forex LIVE Trading Software On The Market Today! When I was in college we played a popular card game called Blind Man’s Bluff. It is an unconventional game of poker in that each person sees the cards of all players except his own. Each player gets dealt one card which is displayed to all other players by placing on the forehead facing outwards. Players bet based on the distribution of visible cards and how other players are betting to see if they have the highest card. In futures trading the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) publishes a report, called the Commitment of Traders report that is based around the same premise of Blind Man’s Bluff. Only instead of seeing your opponents’ playing cards, you get to see who is trading what. The report comes out once a week and classifies traders into 3 categories: 1. Non-Commercial – Large speculators, such as fund traders and professional traders who carry large positions. 2. Commercial – A trader that uses future contracts to hedge a position. 3. Non-Reporting – The small trader who only trades small positions. What Track ‘n Trade Futures Software does is take the numbers from the CFTC and graphs the data in the form of either a line graph or a histogram to illustrate the net positions of all three categories. If we take a look at the weekly chart below for Cotton the blue lines indicate non-commercial activity, the red lines indicate commercial activity, and the green lines indicate non-reporting activity. The base number for the histogram is set at zero in the right hand column. Everything above zero indicates net bullishness and anything below zero indicates net bearishness. Are there any markets where the Commercials are forming a bias to either side right now? If we look at the weekly Natural Gas chart below we can see that the Commercials (Red lines) have been accumulating long positions over the past year and steadily increasing them throughout the price decline since July. Could this possibly lead to a rally in 2009? No one can be certain. But one thing is known for sure - the playing cards on the foreheads of the commercials are telling us they’re buying – I’m not going to call their bluff. Are you? Key Points: 1. Look for commercial activity extremes (bearishness or bullishness) 2. If Commercial activity is at extremes use it as a BIAS only to favor trades on their side 3. Watch for change in extreme levels – this usually indicates a trend change is coming